The method is applied to data from communities in Mexico participating in a national nutrition, food and health program. A Bayesian approach is used to derive constrained and unconstrained forecasts in an autoregressive time series model. Both are obtained by formulating an AR p model in such a way that it is possible to compute numerically the predictive distribution for any number of forecasts. The types of constraints considered are that a linear combination of the forecasts equals a given value. This kind of restriction is applied to forecasting quarterly values whose sum must be equal to a given annual value.
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Constrained forecasts are generated by conditioning on the predictive distribution of unconstrained forecasts. The problem of temporal disaggregation of time series is analyzed by means of Bayesian methods.
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The disaggregated values are obtained through a posterior distribution derived by using a diffuse prior on the parameters. Further analysis is carried out assuming alternative conjugate priors. The means of the different posterior distribution are shown to be equivalent to some sampling theory results. Bayesian prediction intervals are obtained.
Forecasts for future disaggregated values are derived assuming a conjugate prior for the future aggregated value. A formulation of the problem of detecting outliers as an empirical Bayes problem is studied. In so doing we encounter a non-standard empirical Bayes problem for which the notion of average risk asymptotic optimality a. Some general theorems giving sufficient conditions for a.
These general results are then used in various formulations of the outlier problem for underlying normal distributions to give a.
Rates of convergence results are also given using the methods of Johns and Van Ryzin. This article examines the distinctive characteristics and features of how both women and men speak. Based on this analysis, the author will make an assessment, and then invite the reader to become aware of their manner of speaking. En el presente trabajo, estudiamos los espacios de Brown, que son conexos y no completamente de Hausdorff. Escribimos algunas consecuencias de este resultado. Esto generaliza un resultado probado por Kirch en In the present paper we study Brown spaces which are connected and not completely Hausdorff.
We also show that some elements of BG are Brown spaces, while others are totally separated. We write some consequences of such result.
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For example, the space N, TG is not connected "im kleinen" at each of its points. This generalizes a result proved by Kirchin We also present a simpler proof of a result given by Szczuka in Morsi, A. In recent years has increased interest in the development of new materials in this case composites, as these more advanced materials can perform their work better than conventional materials. In the present work we analyze the effect of the addition of carbon nanotubes incorporating nano silver particles to increase both their electrical and mechanical properties.
The obtained alloys were characterized by Scanning Electron Microscopy SEM , X-Ray Diffraction Analysis, hardness tests were performed and electrical conductivity tests were finally carried out. The salts were placed in the inlet to promote corrosion and increase the chemical reaction. These salts were applied to the alloys via discontinuous exposures. The corrosion products were characterized using thermo-gravimetric analysis, scanning electron microscopy and X-ray diffraction.
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The presence of Mo, Al and Si was not significant and there was no evidence of chemical reaction of these elements. The most active elements were the Fe and Cr in the metal base. The steel with the best performance was alloy Fe9Cr3AlSi3Mo, due to the effect of the protective oxides inclusive in presence of the aggressive salts. Clustering is an unsupervised process to determine which unlabeled objects in a set share interesting properties. The objects are grouped into k subsets clusters whose elements optimize a proximity measure.
Methods based on information theory have proven to be feasible alternatives. They attempt to minimize the entropy of each cluster. We propose a clustering method based on the maximum entropy principle. Such a method explores the space of all possible probability distributions of the data to find one that maximizes the entropy subject to extra conditions based on prior information about the clusters. As a consequence of such a principle, those distributions of high entropy that satisfy the conditions are favored over others.
Searching the space to find the optimal distribution of object in the clusters represents a hard combinatorial problem, which disallows the use of traditional optimization techniques. Genetic algorithms are a good alternative to solve this problem. We benchmark our method relative to the best theoretical performance, which is given by the Bayes classifier when data are normally distributed, and a multilayer perceptron network, which offers the best practical performance when data are not normal.
In general, a supervised classification method will outperform a non-supervised one, since, in the first case, the elements of the classes are known a priori. This clearly exhibits the superiority of our method. One of the basic endeavors in Pattern Recognition and particularly in Data Mining is the process of determining which unlabeled objects in a set do share interesting properties.
This implies a singular process of classification usually denoted as "clustering", where the objects are grouped into k subsets clusters in accordance with an appropriate measure of likelihood. Clustering can be considered the most important unsupervised learning problem. The more traditional clustering methods are based on the minimization of a similarity criteria based on a metric or distance. This fact imposes important constraints on the geometry of the clusters found.
Since each element in a cluster lies within a radial distance relative to a given center, the shape of the covering or hull of a cluster is hyper-spherical convex which sometimes does not encompass adequately the elements that belong to it. For this reason we propose to solve the clustering problem through the optimization of Shannon's Entropy.
The optimization of this criterion represents a hard combinatorial problem which disallows the use of traditional optimization techniques, and thus, the use of a very efficient optimization technique is necessary. We consider that Genetic Algorithms are a good alternative. We show that our method allows to obtain successfull results for problems where the clusters have complex spatial arrangements. Such method obtains clusters with non-convex hulls that adequately encompass its elements.
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We statistically show that our method displays the best performance that can be achieved under the assumption of normal distribution of the elements of the clusters. We also show that this is a good alternative when this assumption is not met. We present a novel approach to disentangle the effects of ideology, partisanship, and constituency pressures on roll-call voting. First, we place voters and legislators on a common ideological space. Finally, we use a structural equation model to account for these separate effects on legislative voting.
We rely on public opinion data and a survey of Argentine legislators conducted in — Legislators in presidential countries use a variety of mechanisms to advance their electoral careers and connect with relevant constituents. The most frequently studied activities are bill initiation, co-sponsoring, and legislative speeches.
In this paper, the authors examine legislators' information requests i. The authors focus on the case of Chile - where strong and cohesive national parties coexist with electoral incentives that emphasise the personal vote - to examine the links between party responsiveness and legislators' efforts to connect with their electoral constituencies. Making use of a new database of parliamentary questions and a comprehensive sample of geographical references, the authors examine how legislators use this mechanism to forge connections with voters, and find that targeted activities tend to increase as a function of electoral insecurity and progressive ambition.
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Recent efforts to theorize the role of emotions in political life have stressed the importance of sympathy, and have often recurred to Adam Smith to articulate their claims. In the early twentieth-century, Max Scheler disputed the salutary character of sympathy, dismissing it as an ultimately perverse foundation for human association. Unlike later critics of sympathy as a political principle, Scheler rejected it for being ill equipped to salvage what, in his opinion, should be the proper basis of morality, namely, moral value.
Even if Scheler's objections against Smith's project prove to be ultimately mistaken, he had important reasons to call into question its moral purchase in his own time. Where the most dangerous idol is not self-love but illusory self-knowledge, the virtue of self-command will not suffice. We present an algorithm that automatically segments and classifies the brain structures in a set of magnetic resonance MR brain images using expert information contained in a small subset of the image set.
The algorithm is intended to do the segmentation and classification tasks mimicking the way a human expert would reason. The algorithm uses a knowledge base taken from a small subset of semiautomatically classified images that is combined with a set of fuzzy indexes that capture the experience and expectation a human expert uses during recognition tasks.
The fuzzy indexes are tissue specific and spatial specific, in order to consider the biological variations in the tissues and the acquisition inhomogeneities through the image set. The brain structures are segmented and classified one at a time. For each brain structure the algorithm needs one semiautomatically classified image and makes one pass through the image set. The algorithm uses low-level image processing techniques on a pixel basis for the segmentations, then validates or corrects the segmentations, and makes the final classification decision using higher level criteria measured by the set of fuzzy indexes.
We use single-echo MR images because of their high volumetric resolution; but even though we are working with only one image per brain slice, we have multiple sources of information on each pixel: absolute and relative positions in the image, gray level value, statistics of the pixel and its three-dimensional neighborhood and relation to its counterpart pixels in adjacent images.
We have validated our algorithm for ease of use and precision both with clinical experts and with measurable error indexes over a Brainweb simulated MR set. We present an attractive methodology for the compression of facial gestures that can be used to drive interaction in real time applications.
Using the eigenface method we build compact representation spaces for a variety of facial gestures. These compact spaces are the so called eigenspaces. We do real time tracking and segmentation of facial features from video images and then use the eigenspaces to find compact descriptors of the segmented features. We use the system for an avatar videoconference application where we achieve real time interactivity with very limited bandwidth requirements.
The system can also be used as a hands free man-machine interface. We use interactive virtual environments for cognitive behavioral therapy. Working together with children therapists and psychologists, our computer graphics group developed 5 interactive simulators for the treatment of fears and behavior disorders. The simulators run in real time on P4 PCs with graphic accelerators, but also work online using streaming techniques and Web VR engines. The construction of the simulators starts with ideas and situations proposed by the psychologists, these ideas are then developed by graphic designers and finally implemented in 3D virtual worlds by our group.
Our methodology starts with a graphic modeler to build the geometry of the virtual worlds, the models are then exported to a dedicated OpenGL VR engine that can interface with any VR peripheral.
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Alternatively, the models can be exported to a Web VR engine. The simulators are cost efficient since they require not much more than the PC and the graphics card. We have found that both the therapists and the children that use the simulators find this technology very attractive. We consider the curved 4-body problems on spheres and hyperbolic spheres.